BREAKINGColby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal — stats-based predictionBREAKINGColby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal — stats-based prediction

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Colby Covington

17-5-0
VS

Jorge Masvidal

35-17-0
43%10% Draw47%
Covington
Masvidal
Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Jorge Masvidal a 47% edge over Colby Covington in this matchup. The prediction is driven by experience as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Colby Covington wins 77% vs Jorge Masvidal at 67%

Covington
9.3
Masvidal
8.1
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

24% stoppage rate vs 46%

Covington
2.8
Masvidal
5.5
DurabilityWeight: ★★

77% survival rate vs 67%

Covington
8.5
Masvidal
7.4
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Covington
5.0
Masvidal
5.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

22 bouts vs 52 bouts

Covington
5.4
Masvidal
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 41 years old

Covington
4.8
Masvidal
3.0
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.