Clayton Carpenter vs Khamzat Chimaev — stats-based predictionClayton Carpenter vs Khamzat Chimaev — stats-based prediction

Clayton Carpenter vs Khamzat Chimaev

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: HIGH

Clayton Carpenter

14-4-0
VS

Khamzat Chimaev

15-0-0
40%10% Draw50%
Carpenter
Chimaev
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Khamzat Chimaev a 50% edge over Clayton Carpenter in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Clayton Carpenter wins 78% vs Khamzat Chimaev at 100%

Carpenter
9.3
Chimaev
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

14% stoppage rate vs 40%

Carpenter
1.7
Chimaev
4.8
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 173cm / 188cm, Reach 173cm / ?cm

Carpenter
2.0
Chimaev
8.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

78% survival rate vs 100%

Carpenter
8.6
Chimaev
10.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

18 bouts vs 15 bouts

Carpenter
10.0
Chimaev
8.7
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

31 years old vs 32 years old

Carpenter
8.0
Chimaev
8.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.