Chael Sonnen vs Gustavo Oliveira

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: HIGH

Chael Sonnen

31-17-1

Gustavo Oliveira

37-11-0

43%10% Draw47%

Sonnen

Oliveira

Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Gustavo Oliveira a 47% edge over Chael Sonnen in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Chael Sonnen wins 63% vs Gustavo Oliveira at 77%

Sonnen

7.6

Oliveira

9.3

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

26% stoppage rate vs 27%

Sonnen

3.1

Oliveira

3.2

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 185cm / 178cm, Reach ?cm / 188cm

Sonnen

6.4

Oliveira

3.6

DurabilityWeight: ★★

65% survival rate vs 77%

Sonnen

7.2

Oliveira

8.5

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

49 years old vs 37 years old

Sonnen

3.0

Oliveira

6.3

ExperienceWeight: ★★

49 bouts vs 48 bouts

Sonnen

10.0

Oliveira

9.8

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.