Arman Tsarukyan vs Tony Ferguson

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Arman Tsarukyan

23-3-0

Tony Ferguson

26-11-0

45%10% Draw45%

Tsarukyan

Ferguson

Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Tony Ferguson a 45% edge over Arman Tsarukyan in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Arman Tsarukyan wins 88% vs Tony Ferguson at 70%

Tsarukyan

10.0

Ferguson

8.4

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

39% stoppage rate vs 50%

Tsarukyan

4.7

Ferguson

6.0

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 170cm / 183cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Tsarukyan

2.4

Ferguson

7.6

DurabilityWeight: ★★

88% survival rate vs 70%

Tsarukyan

9.7

Ferguson

7.7

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

30 years old vs 42 years old

Tsarukyan

8.0

Ferguson

3.0

ExperienceWeight: ★★

26 bouts vs 37 bouts

Tsarukyan

7.6

Ferguson

10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.