BREAKINGAlexandre Pantoja vs Colby Covington — stats-based predictionBREAKINGAlexandre Pantoja vs Colby Covington — stats-based prediction

Alexandre Pantoja vs Colby Covington

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM
🇧🇷

Alexandre Pantoja

30-6-0
VS

Colby Covington

17-5-0
45%10% Draw45%
Pantoja
Covington
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Colby Covington a 45% edge over Alexandre Pantoja in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Alexandre Pantoja wins 83% vs Colby Covington at 77%

Pantoja
10.0
Covington
9.3
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

27% stoppage rate vs 24%

Pantoja
3.2
Covington
2.8
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 165cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Pantoja
2.0
Covington
8.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

83% survival rate vs 77%

Pantoja
9.2
Covington
8.5
ExperienceWeight: ★★

36 bouts vs 22 bouts

Pantoja
10.0
Covington
6.9
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

36 years old vs 38 years old

Pantoja
7.0
Covington
4.8
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.