BREAKINGAlexander Volkanovski vs Justin Gaethje — stats-based predictionBREAKINGAlexander Volkanovski vs Justin Gaethje — stats-based prediction

Alexander Volkanovski vs Justin Gaethje

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM
🇦🇺

Alexander Volkanovski

28-4-0
VS

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0
41%10% Draw49%
Volkanovski
Gaethje
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 49% edge over Alexander Volkanovski in this matchup. The prediction is driven by physical attributes as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Alexander Volkanovski wins 88% vs Justin Gaethje at 84%

Volkanovski
10.0
Gaethje
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

46% stoppage rate vs 74%

Volkanovski
5.6
Gaethje
8.9
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 168cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Volkanovski
2.6
Gaethje
7.4
DurabilityWeight: ★★

88% survival rate vs 84%

Volkanovski
9.6
Gaethje
9.3
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 37 years old

Volkanovski
5.4
Gaethje
5.6
ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 32 bouts

Volkanovski
10.0
Gaethje
10.0
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.