Alex Volkanovski vs Justin Gaethje — stats-based predictionAlex Volkanovski vs Justin Gaethje — stats-based prediction

Alex Volkanovski vs Justin Gaethje

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Alex Volkanovski

28-4-0
VS

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0
44%10% Draw46%
Volkanovski
Gaethje
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 46% edge over Alex Volkanovski in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Alex Volkanovski wins 88% vs Justin Gaethje at 84%

Volkanovski
10.0
Gaethje
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

46% stoppage rate vs 74%

Volkanovski
5.6
Gaethje
8.9
DurabilityWeight: ★★

88% survival rate vs 84%

Volkanovski
9.6
Gaethje
9.3
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height ?cm / 180cm, Reach 5cm / ?cm

Volkanovski
5.0
Gaethje
5.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

30 years old vs 38 years old

Volkanovski
8.0
Gaethje
5.3
ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 32 bouts

Volkanovski
10.0
Gaethje
10.0

Ask about this fight

AI · fact-anchored

Grounded in both fighters' records, measurements and recent results. We don't fabricate — if we don't have the data, we'll say so.

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.