PFL 6 Betting Preview

June 25, 2024

1 week

Billed as the “Silent Assassin,” Shamil Musaev introduced himself to the casual MMA fanbase in a star-making turn at PFL 3. His first win in a major North American promotion was a second-round knockout victory over former Bellator interim lightweight champion Logan Storley. Musaev will now travel to Storley’s home state and attempt to beat fellow Russian Murad Ramazanov to secure a spot in the PFL welterweight playoffs.

When the pairings were released at welterweight, it was surprising that this fight was on the preliminary card. Both Musaev and Ramazanov have unbeaten records. During the first week of the regular season, each fighter picked up an impressive stoppage victory.

If this fight had been booked correctly, it could have been a potential meeting in the championship fight. While that is still a possibility, depending on how the standings fall, pairing Musaev and Ramazanov together on the undercard seemed like a missed opportunity to promote in-house stars.

MMA fighting latest news shows that Musaev has been the more potent finisher during his career. Musaev is 15-0-1, with 10 of his wins coming by knockout. Ramazanov has finished eight of his 12 career wins. He has four submission victories and may try to mix things effectively.

This should be a fun fight on a night where a lot will be at stake. While there is a chance that Musaev’s win over Storley was a younger fighter beating a more established one, it’s worth taking a shot at the underdog in this fight.

Bets to consider: Musaev by KO, Musaev +136

PFL Welterweight regular season standingsTop four make playoffs
	Name	Win	Loss	Points
1.	Don Madge	1	0	6*
2.	Murad Ramazanov	1	0	6
3.	Shamil Musaev	1	0	5
4.	Magomed Umalatov	1	0	3
5.	Goiti Yamauchi	1	0	3
6.	Neiman Gracie	0	1	0
7.	Andrey Koreshkov	0	1	0
8.	Logan Storley	0	1	0
9.	Brennan Ward	0	1	0
10.	Laureano Staropoli	0	1	-1**
Tiebreaker for points is based on time of finish.* Staropoli was docked a point for missing weight before his last fight.

Loughnane Would Like to Bury Demons

Brendan Loughnane should have been comfortable with his position in the PFL lightweight standings last year. He was a commanding favorite against Jesus Pinedo and looked in a prime position to defend his 2022 championship. But things didn’t go that way.

In one of the more surprising upsets in recent PFL memory, Pinedo knocked out Loughnane in the first round to steal his playoff spot. Pinedo would ultimately go on to win the tournament, but MMA latest updates show a back injury forced him out of this season.

Loughnane is first place in the standings following the first week of the regular season. His opponent for this week, Justin Gonzales, has lost three straight fights and was KO’d last time out.

Expect more of the same here.

Bets to consider: Loughnane by KO, Under 2.5 rounds

PFL Lightweight regular season standingsTop four make playoffs
	Name	Win	Loss	Points
1.	Brendan Loughnane	1	0	6*
2.	Gabriel Alves Braga	1	0	6
3.	Timur Khizriev	1	0	3
4.	Adam Borics	1	0	3
5.	Kai Kamaka	1	0	3
6.	Tyler Diamond	0	0	0
7.	Bubba Jenkins	0	1	0
8.	Enrique Barzola	0	1	0
9.	Brett Johns	0	1	0
10.	Justin Gonzales	0	1	0
11.	Pedro Carvalho	0	1	0
*Tiebreaker for points is based on time of finish.

Storley Needs the Spectacular

Storley’s loss to Museav leaves him with no wiggle room to make the playoffs. Even more problematic for Storley is that his fighting style isn’t necessarily well-suited for the PFL. Storley hasn’t recorded a first-round finish since he beat E.J. Brooks in November 2019.

Storley will fight Luca Poclit, a replacement fighter. Poclit is a submission specialist, which could trouble Storley’s wrestling-heavy approach. Betting against Storley in his home state of South Dakota isn’t wise, but it is doubtful he will get the first-round win he needs to advance.

Bets to consider: Parlay Storley ML, Fight to Start Second Round

Jenkins, Braga Need Victories

Bubba Jenkins has been a staple of the PFL playoffs over the past two seasons. Jenkins’ playoff disappointments the past two years may be exacerbated if he can’t get back there this season. Jenkins lost his first fight and will have a difficult fight ahead with Gabriel Alves Braga this weekend.

Jenkins has a wrestling-heavy approach that can dominate any man who can’t stuff takedowns. Braga picked up a first-round knockout during the first week of the regular season and would like to clinch the top seed. If Jenkins didn’t need a finish, this would be a good spot to lean on his wrestling.

He must take risks, and Braga should capitalize on one of those openings.

Bets to consider: Braga ML, Braga by KO/TKO/DQ

Umalatov Should Crush Ward

The best MMA news sites would like to see Magomed Umalatov perform better this time against Brennan Ward. While Umalatov picked up a unanimous decision victory last time out, he won’t want to miss out on an opportunity to grab bonus points. Ward didn’t last long during his last fight.

Ward sought a finish and was submitted just 62 seconds after the opening bell. He may be eager to take risks again in this fight. Umalatov will score a knockout to pick up all six points.

Bets to consider: Umalatov by KO/TKO/DQ

Here are some some quick picks on the other fights not mentioned above: