UFC Freedom 250 betting odds: O'Malley-Zahabi decision lock

MMA Mania is backing Sean O'Malley and Aiemann Zahabi to reach the judges' scorecards when they meet this Sunday at UFC Freedom 250, the promotion's unprecedented South Lawn showcase in Washington, D.C. The outlet's weekly "Weekend Lock" column recommends the "Go the Distance" prop at -160 for the bantamweight feature between the former champion and the surging contender.

The case hinges on durability. O'Malley has been finished twice as a pro, while Zahabi has only been stopped once — a Ricardo Ramos spinning elbow in 2017. "Since then? He's been incredibly difficult to put away," MMA Mania notes, pointing to Zahabi's survival against a Jose Aldo head kick. O'Malley's recent run reflects the same trend: no stoppage against Marlon Vera in their rematch, no finish against Song Yadong at UFC 324. His knockout rate has dropped as he leaned into a more measured, distance-oriented approach.

Why Zahabi's striking strategy favors a decision

Zahabi has said publicly he intends to strike rather than wrestle O'Malley. MMA Mania expects a technical kickboxing match, with O'Malley controlling range using his length and Zahabi looking to counter without taking wild risks. The piece describes Zahabi as "a disciplined, intelligent fighter who understands range management and defense," the kind of opponent who won't charge headlong into exchanges hunting a finish.

The obvious risk is O'Malley's precision. One clean counter could end the night early, and if Zahabi grows overconfident in the pocket, he could walk into trouble. Still, given both men's chins, O'Malley's shift toward decisions, and Zahabi's toughness, the decision prop looks like the safest play on the UFC Freedom 250 card, per MMA Mania. O'Malley by decision sits at +100, with his knockout line at +185 and Zahabi's decision price at +500.

UFC Freedom 250 airs live from the White House South Lawn on Sunday, June 14, with Ilia Topuria defending his featherweight title against Justin Gaethje in the main event.

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• MMA Mania — Here’s MMAmania.com’s UFC Freedom 250 betting odds ‘Weekend Lock’ … what’s yours?