UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Fighting Nerds Look For Big Breakthrough

August 21, 2024

5 months

Caio Borralho is part of one of the hottest MMA gyms in the sport. The “Fighting Nerds” have produced some significant victories over the past few months. A win over Jared Cannonier this Saturday night at the UFC Apex could put Borralho in the discussion as a future contender for the UFC middleweight title.

But there is a reason for caution when considering Borralho as a future star. While MMAfighting news shows that Borralho is 16-1 and has a colorful personality, he has yet to face much top-level competition. Cannonier has taken on many of the best fighters the middleweight division offers.

While Cannonier is coming off a disappointing loss, he is still dangerous. He carries a lot of power in his hands and will take advantage of any weaknesses Borralho has on his feet. Borralho hasn’t proven that his standup is championship-qualifier standard.

This is a fun fight. Borralho has a lot to prove and may very well be on a path to a title. But I believe this is a dog-or-pass spot. Getting Cannonier at nearly two-to-one is hard to pass up.

Bets to consider: Cannonier +190, Under 3.5 rounds

Never Over the Hill

Angela Hill is a marvel in the UFC’s strawweight division. She has the record for most appearances in the octagon in the weight class at 24. While Hill’s results have been mixed over her career, the 39-year-old seems to be aging well.

Hill has won four of her past five fights. During Hill’s last fight, she picked up her first career win by submission. The best MMA sites show that Hill will have another good matchup this weekend.

Tabitha Ricci is a Brazilian fighter who can grapple but doesn’t lean on that too much. Ricci’s last three fights have gone the distance. Hill’s trademark volume should win out if this one follows the same pattern.

During Ricci’s last fight, she scraped out a narrow decision against Tecia Pennington that many believed her opponent won.

Bets to consider: Hill -110, Hill by decision

Morales Needs to Be Ready for the Toughest Test

Michael Morales needs to be worried about his opponent this weekend. While Morales is an astronomically high -900 to win against Neil Magny, many up-and-coming fighters have seen Magny halt their momentum. MMA breaking news shows that during Magny’s last fight, Mike Malott beat him up for two rounds before he turned the tides against his younger competitor.

Magny kept up the pressure against the exhausted Malott. Once Magny reached the mount position, he poured on the strikes to pick up a TKO victory. Morales is 16-0 and has produced 11 knockouts during his career.

Morales has passed every test in the UFC since he joined after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021.

Bets to consider: Under 2.5 rounds

Shahbazyan Looking for Momentum

Edmen Shahbazyan hasn’t won back-to-back fights since 2019. He started his career 11-0 and then lost his next four fights. That’s not how things were supposed to go for Shahbazyan, who earned his reputation as one of Ronda Rousey’s training partners.

Shahbazyan won his last fight comfortably, knocking out A.J. Dobson in the first round. Now, Shahbazyan will look to overwhelm Gerald Meerschaert similarly. Much like Shahbazyan, Meerschaert has hit a rough patch in his career.

He has lost three of his past five fights. Meerschaert typically struggles in striking exchanges and feels more comfortable on the ground. Meerschaert has collected 28 wins via submission.

But utilizing that grappling won’t be so easy against Shahbazyan, who is capable in grappling exchanges.

Bets to consider: Shahbazyan by knockout, Under 2.5 rounds

Frey Looks to Grab TUF Middleweight Crown

The Ultimate Fighter reality show isn’t what it once was. With Dana White’s Contender Series serving as the primary way for young talent to make the UFC main roster, TUF seems old-fashioned. However, there is an audience for the reality TV show, which offers insight into aspiring fighters.

Ryan Loder and Robert Valentin Frey both reached the TUF 32 final. Loder is 6-1 as a professional fighter on the regional scene. He has four knockouts and lost his only fight by decision. Robert Valentin will be a tough challenge for Loder in the final.

Valentin is a more well-rounded fighter. He has three knockouts and four submission victories. These fights are always fun because of the buildup they had throughout the run of the show.

Valentin should be able to lean on his superior skill set to earn a victory in this matchup.

Bets to consider: Valentin by submission, Under 2.5 rounds

Wang Cong Looks for Splashy Debut

Wang Cong has a thorough Muay Thai background. When Wang made a quick rise to the UFC through the Road to UFC Tournament, she impressed people around the world with her well-rounded skills. Wang has won two fights by submission and also has a knockout on her 5-0 record.

Wang’s debut in the UFC will see her take on veteran fighter Victoria Leonardo. While Leonardo has lost three of her past four fights, she has taken on some solid competition. Leonardo lost by knockout to likely future title challenger Manon Fiorot.

Leonardo also took a knockout loss to tough prospect Natalia Silva. This is a tough fight to wager on. It is tempting to take a flier on Leonardo. Wang hasn’t shown what she can do in the UFC yet.

I would put a small bet on Leonardo at +700, but it is better to pass if you believe Wang may be a fighter with potential.

Bets to consider: Pass

Here are some quick picks on the rest of the card: