UFC 319 – Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico: Preview & Betting Tips
The UFC 319 co-main event brings an intriguing clash of styles as undefeated British featherweight Lerone Murphy meets dynamic wrestler Aaron Pico.
Murphy’s (16-0-1) UFC journey began with a split draw against Zubaira Tukhugov back in 2019, but since then, “The Miracle” has been nothing short of perfect. The 34-year-old has strung together eight straight wins in the Octagon, most recently outpointing former interim title challenger Josh Emmett in a composed, calculated performance.
Pico (13-4) arrives in the UFC as one of the most highly touted fighters never to have competed under the banner until now. A lifelong Bellator product, the 28-year-old joined the company as a free agent earlier this year and makes his debut in the co-main event of a pay-per-view card.
Tale of the Tape
Lerone Murphy – Odds 2.55 (Bet Victor)
Record: 16-0-1
Age: 34
Height: 5ft9
Reach: 73”
Weight: Featherweight
Stance: Orthodox
Aaron Pico – Odds 1.53 (Bet Victor)
Record: 13-4
Age: 28
Height: 5ft8
Reach: 70”
Weight: Featherweight
Stance: Orthodox
Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico: Analysis
Murphy’s game is built on striking fundamentals. He manages distance exceptionally well, keeping opponents at the end of his strikes while picking his shots smartly. He doesn’t overwhelm with volume, but his shot selection is efficient, and both his head movement and footwork is among the best in the division.
Against Emmett, he showed his ability to mix in takedown defence and clinch control to neutralise his opponent. And this could serve him well in this fight against Pico.
Signed by Bellator before even making his pro debut, Pico was touted as a future MMA superstar due to his elite amateur wrestling credentials, Golden Gloves boxing background, and freakish athleticism. However, his early career was marred by defensive lapses and was heavily reliant on his brawling instincts, leading to multiple knockout losses.
The 28-year-old has matured since then, refining his boxing and using his wrestling more strategically. His recent three-fight winning streak in Bellator/PFL showcased a more patient approach. But even then, Pico is still willing to bite down on his mouthpiece and trade if provoked. Against someone as technically skilled as Murphy, this is how he could come unstuck.
Murphy vs Pico: Prediction & Betting Tips
The one concern I have is that Murphy hasn’t had a full camp specifically for Pico, which could mean less time to prepare for Pico’s wrestling-heavy threats. However, he has proven to be a solid defensive wrestler with a knack for stuffing takedowns against the fence and creating separation quickly to get back to his striking.
While Pico has world class wrestling credentials, he does have a tendency to fade late in fights. So if the Englishman does stuff takedowns early, this could eat up more of Pico’s gas tank. From there, Murphy can use his speed and accuracy to close out the show.
I really don’t see how Murphy enters this one as the betting underdog. Especially given how Bellator fighters have transitioned to the UFC recently. You’d be a fool not to take Lerone Murphy moneyline at odds of 2.55 (Bet Victor).
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