UFC 309 Betting Preview
UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones is a complicated figure in the history of MMA for too many reasons to list. But Jones’ campaign to fight an older Stipe Miocic rubbed many fans the wrong way. Jones is the UFC’s greatest-ever light heavyweight champion but feels like he needs another win at heavyweight to continue building on his legacy.
How much a win over Miocic will change things is still up in the air. Miocic, a former champion, does have the record for most consecutive title defenses at heavyweight. But MMAfighting latest news shows that Miocic is now 42 and hasn’t fought since 2021.
There is always a chance that Miocic, a savvy veteran fighter who is also a good wrestler, could land a shot and knock Jones out, but that feels unlikely at this point of his career. Miocic still works as a firefighter for a day job and has plenty in his life to be happy about.
With Jones, he is intent on putting on a show and attempting to cement his case as the best MMA fighter of all time. While Jones had some other issues early in his career that earned him detractors, few men are as motivated and skillful as he is.
Miocic is well-rounded enough to make Jones think. But back this fight to go over the total.
Bets to consider: Over 1.5 rounds, Jones by submission
Co-Main Event Features Exciting Rematch
It’s hard to know how much the flirtation with a Conor McGregor fight cost Michael Chandler. Chandler, a former Bellator champion, always produced exciting fights because of his willingness to engage in wars. This weekend, MMA breaking news shows Chandler will have an opportunity to right an old wrong.
When Chandler fought Charles Oliveira for the UFC lightweight title a few years ago, Chandler knocked Oliveira down twice and appeared to be in the driver’s seat to steal the belt. But that isn’t how the fight went down. Oliveira survived the first round.
Early in the second round, Oliveira landed a knee and followed up with a flurry of punches to retain his title with a knockout 19 seconds into the second round. Oliveira has lost two of his previous three fights. Chandler has also been inactive for a while and has taken a few losses.
Back this fight to be a beautiful disaster, with both men trying to stop the fight early.
Bets to consider: Fight not to go the distance, Oliveira by finish, Under 2.5 rounds
Does Bo Know?
Bo Nickal’s hype as a fighter is natural. Nickal was a decorated amateur wrestler at Penn State and believed that a grappling base would lead to success in the UFC. So far, Nickal has looked comfortable in the promotion’s middleweight division. But Nickal, 28, also hasn’t been hit with heavyweight competition lately.
Nickal had a few nervy moments with Cody Brundage during his last fight before agreeing to take on Paul Craig this weekend. Craig isn’t a fighter to be played with on the ground. Craig has a history of fighting well against high-level prospects. Famously, Craig scored a TKO win over future champion Jamahal Hill.
Nickal will win this fight, but I think it is worth a small bet on Craig at this price. Craig is always a threat to force a submission, and Nickal will likely look to get the fight to the mat at some point. Nickal is 6-0 in his MMA career thus far and has won four fights via submission.
Bets to consider: Under 1.5 rounds, Craig ML (+650 or better), Nickal by submission
Silva Ready to Continue Hot Streak
Karine Silva burst onto the UFC scene with a nice little winning streak. Silva’s first three fights following entering a contract on the Contender Series saw her wrap up submission victories. While Silva had to go the distance in her last fight, a decision win over Ariane Lipski, her star still seems on the rise.
But the best MMA news sites show she still has a lot to prove. Fighting Viviane Araújo this weekend will be a good test. Araújo has fought some of the best women in the UFC. She has losses to Amanda Ribas, Katlyn Chookagian, Jessica Eye, and Alexa Grasso. While Araújo’s strength of schedule is excellent, her results have been rough recently.
Araújo has lost four of her past six fights. Count on Silva to hand her another defeat. Silva will press for a finish, but this fight will likely find a way to make it all 15 minutes.
Bets to consider: Over 2.5 rounds, Silva ML
Ruffy a Big Favorite to Keep Fighting Nerds’ Success Going
There is no hotter gym in the UFC than the Fighting Nerds. Mauricio Ruffy would like to be the next fighter to maintain what this Brazilian team has been building over the past few years. Ruffy is off to a 10-1 start in his career and has seen all 11 of his fights end inside the distance.
Ruffy folded Jamie Mullarkey in the first round last time out. James Llontop doesn’t lean on his power nearly as much. While Llontop has seven career wins by knockout, he has seen eight of his 18 fights go the distance.
Ruffy is a sizeable favorite in this bout and has the power advantage. However, Ruffy’s lack of UFC experience makes me wonder if this number may be too big. Back this one to end inside the distance and avoid picking a side in what could be a lopsided contest.
Bets to consider: Under 1.5 rounds, fight to end in the first round
Here’s a look at the odds for the rest of the fights on the card not mentioned above:
Jonathan Martinez (+120) vs. Marcus McGhee (-142)
Eryk Anders (-142) vs. Chris Weidman (+120)
Jim Miller (+145) vs. Damon Jackson (-175)
Marcin Tybura (-120) vs. Jhonata Diaz (Even money)
Mickey Gall (-125) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+105)
Bassil Hafez (+195) vs. Oban Elliott (-238)
Veronica Hardy (-148) vs. Eduarda Moura (+124)
Find all the latest boxing news and MMA breaking updates on boxingnews.com.
By Dean McHugh.
