UFC 297 Betting Preview: Dricus Du Plessis Searches for Way to Blast Through Strickland’s Shell

January 18, 2024

4 months

Things got personal between Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis in December. While trading barbs during a press conference to promote UFC 297, both men hit the other with deeply personal insults. Strickland felt Du Plessis went too far.

The bad blood resulted in a fight between Strickland and Du Plessis in the crowd of a UFC event. But now, the two men will be legally sanctioned to hit each other in the octagon. This is Strickland’s first opportunity to defend his middleweight championship.

He will do so against Du Plessis, who upset Strickland by poking fun at Strickland for being abused as a kid. Strickland doesn’t hold the moral high ground. He had previously hit Du Plessis with insults about having a sexual relationship with his coach.

There is no love lost between these two men. All that remains to be seen is if the power-punching Du Plessis can put Strickland to sleep or if the more defensive-minded Strickland can stay in his shell and work the shoulder roll to stay safe and defend his championship, according to MMA news websites.

But what is the best way to bet on a main event with so much bad blood? All odds are subject to change as the event approaches on Saturday.

Betting Main Event Isn’t Easy

Strickland usually talks a big game in the lead-up to fights where he talks about the damage he wants to inflict on opponents. Then, when the fight starts, Strickland gets into his defensive shell and primarily works behind his jab with heavy pressure. While this fight makes Strickland hard to hit and frustrates opponents, it isn’t a style that lends itself to much excitement.

Since coming back from a two-year absence following a motorcycle injury in October 2020, Strickland has fought ten times in the UFC. Only two of his eight victories during that timespan have come by knockout. Seven of his ten fights have gone the distance.

Du Plessis likely won’t want to sit back and play Strickland’s game. He is willing to rush forward, risking getting clipped on the way in to force a finish. That strategy has worked for du Plessis, who has won three straight fights by finish. Du Plessis has won 19 of his 20 career fights by decision.

Strickland is a -130 favorite to win the fight, while du Plessis is +106. There is a possibility that du Plessis won’t be able to crack Strickland’s shell, but Strickland will also be dealing with the nerves of trying to defend his title for the first time. Playing du Plessis at plus money isn’t a bad option, but playing his prop to win by knockout (+295) isn’t a bad look either.

To reduce the risk, betting du Plessis to win by finish is a strong option at plus money.

Prediction: du Plessis by finish +150

Can Pennington Institute Her Gameplan?

Raquel Pennington feels more comfortable striking on her feet. Her challenger for the vacant bantamweight title is most comfortable when making her opponent uncomfortable. Mayra Bueno Silva has won her previous three fights by submission.

However, Bueno Silva has been through an emotional seven months. Bueno Silva scored the biggest career win last July by submitting former champion Holly Holm in the second round. However, Bueno Silva would find out post-fight that she would have to vacate the win over Holm due to a failed drug test. The win would have been Bueno Silva’s fourth straight win, three of which came by submission. Bueno Silva earned a four-month suspension.

Bueno Silva has never gone further than three rounds in her career. Her only main event ended in the second round with a submission win over Holm. Pennington’s only previous five-round bout, a championship battle with Amanda Nunes, ended when Pennington was knocked out in the final round.

Bueno Silva is a -175 favorite, while Pennington is +138. But this may be a spot where it is better to avoid picking a winner. The over/under for 4.5 rounds is priced -124 for over and -107 for under. Bueno Silva doesn’t want to get pulled into a clinch-heavy fight and will try to end this one early.

Prediction Under 4.5 rounds (-107)

Malott Eager to Bludgeon Magny

Mike Malott hasn’t disappointed since entering the UFC with a TKO win over Mickey Gall at UFC 273. He has won all three bouts in the promotion and earned a stoppage in each fight. Malott, who is 10-1 as a professional, will see a step up in competition against welterweight gatekeeper Neil Magny.

Magny is a durable fighter who has found some success in the UFC. However, Magny hasn’t been consistent as of late. He has lost three of his past six fights, all against top competition. Magny is a fighter with a deep gas tank that pushes every man he enters the cage with. Most of Malott’s fights have ended quickly.

This will be a good challenge for Malott to see where he stands, according to MMA latest updates. Malott is a heavy favorite to win at -400, while Magny is +310. Magny, however, hasn’t been knocked out in six years; Malott won’t be the one to crack his chin.

Prediction: Over 1.5 rounds -122

Action Man Ready for More

Chris Curtis would have liked to have been more active last season, but life didn’t go his way. Curtis struggled with injuries, one of which stemmed from an accidental clash of heads with Nassourdine Imavov last June at UFC 289. Curtis has fought 41 times in his career and has proven himself a durable competitor.

Marc-André Barriault enters this fight with Curtis on a two-fight winning streak. Barriault has finished 11 of his 16 career wins. He will be looking to put the pace on Curtis and try to grab a win.

Prediction: Chris Curtis -190

Quick Picks on Other Fights

There is a lot of action on the UFC 297 card. Here is a rundown of the other fights on the card. Predicted winners are in bold.

Featherweight, Movsar Evloev (-195) vs Arnold Allen (+115)
Bantamweight, Brad Katona (-186) vs Garrett Armfield
Featherweight, Charles Jourdain (-190) vs Sean Woodson (+150)
Bantamweight, Serhiy Sidey (-177) vs. Ramon Taveras (+143)
Women’s strawweight, Gillian Robertson (-250) vs Polyana Viana (+195)
Welterweight, Yohan Lainesse (-148) vs Sam Patterson (+118)
Women’s flyweight, Jasmine Jasudavicius (-400) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+300)
Flyweight, Malcolm Gordon (-200) vs Jimmy Flick (+160)