UFC 316 – Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland: Preview & Betting Tips

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This Saturday night two of the most dangerous welterweights in the UFC go head-to-head, as the number 14-ranked Vicente Luque takes on Kevin Holland in the main card opener of UFC 316.

Luque’s (23-10-1) time in the UFC has been a roller coaster. He had an explosive 10 wins in 11 fights during his peak, but this was quickly followed by a sharp downturn that included a serious brain bleed in 2022. While many doubted he would return, “The Silent Assassin” did just that, and though his recent form has been inconsistent, he still remains a top class fighter at 170-pounds.

Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (27-13-0) has always been a fascinating fighter to watch due to his flashy, fearless, and at times, frustrating antics. His return to welterweight looked promising when he dismantled Gunnar Nelson in his last outing, showing a much-improved discipline behind his jab and crisp straight punches.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque – Odds 3.25 (Bet 365)

Record: 23-10-0

Age: 33

Height: 5ft11

Reach: 75”

Weight: Welterweight

Stance: Orthodox

Kevin Holland – Odds 1.36 (Bet 365)

Record: 27-13-0

Age: 32

Height: 6ft3

Reach: 81”

Weight: Welterweight

Stance: Orthodox

Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland: Analysis

Luque’s fighting style is built on suffocating forward pressure, having a granite-chin, and an eye for punishing counters. However, since his health scare a few years ago, he has seemingly become more susceptible to being hurt.

However, if he can get inside Holland’s reach and turn this into a phone booth type of boxing bout, he’ll find success. His best path to victory though lies on the mat, where his slick submission game (he owns nine career subs) and BJJ black belt could expose Holland’s scrambling vulnerabilities.

At 6’3″ with an 81” reach (a six-inch edge over Luque), Holland has the physical tools to dominate from distance, especially considering his fighting style. He utilises front kicks, teep kicks and side kicks to score on the outside and also knock his opponent off balance. With his hands, he uses speed and clever feints to keep opponents guessing.

Whilst he doesn’t look like the most powerful of guys, when he sits down on his shots, particularly his devastating right hand, the sheer speed, technique and torque he gets on it generates natural power. His 13 career KO’s speak for themselves.

Holland’s weaknesses are well-known: his takedown defence is inconsistent, he has questionable decision-making in scrambles, and he often chooses to clown his opponents and talk too much in the octagon, rather than getting on with the job. Against a finisher like Luque, he will have to be on point and professional all night.

Luque vs Holland: Prediction & Betting Tips

Three or four years ago, I would say this was a pick-em fight, but over the last couple of years I think it’s clear to see that the Brazilian has taken a backwards step. Meanwhile, the American still looks very sharp and athletic on a good day – the problem with Holland is we often don’t know which version of him will turn up.

If it stays on the feet, you’d have to believe that Holland’s size, speed, and unorthodox striking give him the edge. But Luque’s pressure and grappling skills still make him a dangerous prospect.

Both enter the octagon on Saturday night 2-3 in their last five fights, but it’s clear to me that Holland is the fresher and more athletic fighter, and his physical advantages are key due to how he fights at range (using straight techniques). Kevin Holland will get the job done via KO/TKO or DQ at odds of 2.30 (Bet 365).

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