Saul ‘Canelo' Alvarez vs Terence ‘Bud' Crawford: Preview & Betting Tips

The build-up to Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford has been hard to enjoy at times. Instead of appreciating two pound-for-pound greats daring to test themselves, much of the conversation has been hijacked by fans tearing down the other fighter. The truth is we’re lucky to see them meet in the ring.

Canelo Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KO’s) brings experience at the weight, and the résumé. He’s fought at super-middleweight for years and even ventured into light-heavyweight, banking rounds with pressure, an iron chin, and intelligent shot selection.

Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KO’s) is the underdog, but he brings a serious threat. He’s sharp, a brilliant reader of opponents, and he hits much harder than most people in the modern era of boxing. His finishing instincts are among the best we’ve ever seen in the sport in the 21st century; once he hurts someone, he rarely lets them off the hook.

Tale of the Tape

Canelo Alvarez – Odds 1.53 (Bet 365)

Record: 63-2-2, 39 KO’s

Age: 34

Height: 5ft7

Reach: 70”

Weight: Super-middleweight

Stance: Orthodox

Terence Crawford – Odds 2.50 (Bet 365)

Record: 41-0, 31 KO’s

Age: 37

Height: 5ft8

Reach: 74”

Weight: Super-middleweight

Stance: Switch

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford: Analysis

Canelo knows how to manage these big types of fights. He has multiple gameplans to fall back on, e.g he can come forward and be the pressure fighter, or he can sit on the back foot and counterpunch with power – this is probably his most-suited gameplan in his career in my opinion.

However, cracks in the armour have shown in recent times. Canelo hasn’t scored a knockout since 2011 against Caleb Plant, and his last few performances suggest a decline in footwork, speed and even snap in his shots. Too often, he’s been guilty of simply walking after opponents without cutting the ring effectively. He’s also been countered cleanly at times, and a slick counterpuncher like Crawford could exploit that.

For Bud, critics point to his recent fight with Israil Madrimov, arguing that if he couldn’t stop Madrimov at light-middleweight, how is he going to hurt Canelo at super-middleweight? But that comparison doesn’t quite hold up as far as I’m concerned. Madrimov is a very mobile, awkward fighter, bouncing in and out, forcing Crawford to reset constantly. 

Canelo, on the other hand, prefers to plant his feet and look for power counters. That static approach could leave him open to the kind of pinpoint punches Crawford thrives on.

While it’s true Canelo has never been dropped, we can’t ignore that his recent opposition at 168-pounds has been underwhelming. John Ryder, Jermell Charlo moving up multiple weight divisions, Jaime Munguia, Edgar Berlanga and William Scull. Yes, these are all “world level” opponents, but none of them were taken as serious elite threats. Unlike Crawford.

Alvarez vs Crawford: Prediction & Betting Tips

This fight is all about styles. Canelo’s volume, experience at the weight, and chin versus Crawford’s slick counters, timing, and killer instinct. While many will lean towards Canelo on points, the value lies with Crawford and if he scores the upset, don’t be surprised if it comes in dramatic fashion.

There’s also the argument that although the American is the one moving up two weight divisions, it actually looks as though the Mexican is the naturally smaller man in this one. Perhaps that could play a part psychologically. 

I’ve been a fan of both guys for years. Especially Crawford, who I remember coming over to the UK and outclassing Ricky Burns in front of a hostile crowd in Scotland about a decade ago.

But despite being a few years older than Canelo, I just feel like his style of fighting has made him age better than Canelo’s in the ring. I believe Crawford is the naturally bigger man, he’s fresher, and stylistically I think he matches up better. 

I’m picking Terence Crawford moneyline at odds of 2.50 (Bet 365), and I’m also taking Crawford to win by KO/TKO at odds of 11.00 via the same sportsbook. While I don’t think he can KO Canelo via a one punch KO, I do think he could hurt Canelo to the body and spring on him with vicious follow up shots, which is by far his best trait in the ring.

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