Editorial Track Record

How the record splits by market

Units assume a flat 1-unit stake per pick, priced at the odds quoted in the picks JSON. This is a bookkeeping convention — real staking should sit in a bankroll model, not a flat unit per fight.

Full ledger

• ✗ MissedWilliamson to winTBDMoneyline

  Williamson already solved Simpson over 10 rounds in December, and Simpson's never been 12 before as the challenger. The height gap didn't save Simpson last time; Williamson's workrate and body attack broke him down in the 10th. Unless Simpson's made a significant tactical adjustment in eight months, the result repeats.

  Troy Williamson vs. Callum Simpson 2 · 9 Aug 2026
• ✗ MissedJohnson to winTBDMoneyline

  Johnson's the active champion with three defences of the unified belts in twelve months, and her last stoppage win came against a fellow titlist. Thorslund hasn't held any of these straps since September 2024 and spent the interim hunting an interim featherweight belt. The ring rust and step back down in weight tilt this slightly Johnson's way if the workrate stays high.

  MVP 05 · 9 Aug 2026
• ✓ CashedMcKenna to winTBDMoneyline

  McKenna has home advantage in Dublin, a 191cm reach that Oliha's camp hasn't published an answer to, and he's already outpointed Liam Smith over twelve when the stakes were high. The IBF belt stays with the Irishman if he can enforce distance and avoid getting dragged into a brawl where Oliha's recent stoppages live.

  Zuffa Boxing 10 · 9 Aug 2026
• ✗ MissedWilliamson to winTBDMoneyline

  He's already solved Simpson once and the stoppage wasn't controversial — Simpson's corner pulled him after ten. The height and reach gap didn't matter in December when Williamson walked through it, and there's no evidence Simpson's made the adjustments needed to keep him off for twelve rounds. Lean to the champion repeating.

  Williamson vs Simpson II · 8 Aug 2026
• ✓ CashedMcKenna to winTBDMoneyline

  Home advantage in Dublin, proven at domestic level against Liam Smith last April, and the physical dimensions favour him. Oliha's résumé is solid but lacks a name McKenna's level. Edge to the Irishman if he boxes to his reach.

  Zuffa Boxing 10: McKenna vs Oliha · 8 Aug 2026
• ✓ CashedBattle to win-140Moneyline

  Length + technique against pressure over three rounds in a mid-sized PFL cage is the modal Battle decision. Rosta has a live path to a stoppage but it's not the base rate — the price is a small mark-up on what the read actually says.

  PFL Charlotte · 7 Aug 2026
• ✓ CashedBattle by decision+180Method of victory

  Battle picks safety over pressure in exchanges — three rounds of counter-boxing is the highest-EV path to the same result his moneyline implies. Bigger price for essentially the same read.

  PFL Charlotte · 7 Aug 2026

Awaiting settlement

Picks on cards that either haven't happened yet or on markets our grader can't auto-settle. These count once the result is in and the recap lane updates.

• -220Over 1.5 rounds· PFL Charlotte · 7 Aug 2026
• TBDJohnson to win· MVPW-05 · 8 Aug 2026
• TBDFerreira to win· UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · 8 Aug 2026
• TBDSalkilld to win· UFC Vegas 120 · 8 Aug 2026
• TBDWalsh to win· Zuffa Boxing 10 · 8 Aug 2026
• TBDPick withheld — insufficient data· Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Episode 1 · 11 Aug 2026
• TBDShields to win· Claressa Shields vs Kaye Scott · 15 Aug 2026
• TBDMakhachev to win· UFC 330 · 15 Aug 2026
• TBDMakhachev to win· UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry · 15 Aug 2026
• TBDGracie to win· UFC BJJ 10: Tackett vs Gracie · 20 Aug 2026
• TBDSerrano to win· Amanda Serrano vs Lucrecia Manzur · 21 Aug 2026

How grading works

• Moneyline — graded on the official winner of the main event on the card the pick was published against.
• Method of victory — graded on the announced method: KO/TKO, decision, or submission bucket. Technical decisions grade as decisions; corner retirements grade as KO/TKO.
• Total rounds — graded against the round the stoppage landed in, or full-distance for a decision. Half-round lines never push; integer lines can.
• Other props— round-group and open props are surfaced as “not auto-graded” unless a machine-readable rule fits. We'd rather leave a call ungraded than claim a win the reader can't verify.

Full grading logic: src/lib/betting/grade-picks.ts — every rule is one function call, so if you spot a mis-grade let us know and we'll fix it in the code (not just the number).