UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry — Over/Under Rounds
Distance market for UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry. Fight is scheduled for 5 rounds — the over/under settles below with best prices across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM.
Islam Makhachev brings both lightweight and welterweight titles into this one, a two-weight champion with a 28-1 record and a 16-fight win streak tied for the longest in UFC history. Ian Machado Garry is 17-1, the lone blemish a December 2024 decision loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov in a title eliminator, and he's back with two straight unanimous wins over Prates and Muhammad. Makhachev won the welterweight strap in November 2025 by decisioning Jack Della Maddalena on his 170lb debut; Garry is the un…
Style read
Makhachev is the sambo world champion and submission specialist — 13 of his 28 wins by sub, including four consecutive lightweight title defences finished by choke. Garry is the taller, rangier striker at 191cm to Makhachev's 178cm, a 13cm height gap that's enormous at welterweight, and he's gone t…
How each fighter wins
Makhachev wins if he closes distance, gets the clinch, and drags this to the mat. His brabo choke stopped Moicano in round one and Poirier in round five — he finds it everywhere. The height disadvantage is real, but Makhachev walked through Volkanovski twice and Della Maddalena once at ranges that didn't suit him. If he gets top position, Garry has to survive 25 minutes of suffocation.
Garry wins if he uses the 13cm height edge and keeps this at kicking range. He's 7-1 by knockout and went five hard rounds with Rakhmonov, so the cardio is there. Makhachev's knockout rate is 18 per cent to Garry's 41 — the Irishman has real power and Makhachev has been stopped once in his career, the sole loss on his ledger. If Garry can stuff takedowns and land the straight left over 25 minutes…
Key stats
- ▸Makhachev 28-1, 16-fight win streak tied for longest in UFC history
- ▸Garry 17-1, sole loss to Rakhmonov on 7 December 2024
- ▸Height gap: Garry +13cm (191cm to 178cm)
- ▸Makhachev: 13 submission wins, 4 consecutive lightweight title defences by choke
- ▸KO rate: Makhachev 18%, Garry 41%
- ▸Distance rate: Makhachev 36%, Garry 53%
Total rounds — over/under
Total-rounds markets typically post 48–72 hours before the fight — check back closer to bell time.
What moves the distance line
- KO percentages — two heavy hitters facing each other pushes the line down (under is favoured). Two boxer-punchers or pure technicians pushes it up.
- Championship rounds — 5-round main events shift the line significantly higher than 3-rounders.
- Recent stoppage form — a fighter on a KO streak drags the line down, even against a historically-durable opponent.
- Weight cut concerns — a fighter fighting up in weight or coming off a bad cut tends to fade later; the market sometimes over-corrects toward the under.
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