Everything you need to bet UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry: moneyline odds across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; our editorial best bets and value picks; and a full breakdown of the prop markets so you can find the highest-EV angle on the card.
Full card and undercard on the event page.
Islam Makhachev brings both lightweight and welterweight titles into this one, a two-weight champion with a 28-1 record and a 16-fight win streak tied for the longest in UFC history. Ian Machado Garry is 17-1, the lone blemish a December 2024 decision loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov in a title eliminator, and he's back with two straight unanimous wins over Prates and Muhammad. Makhachev won the welterweight strap in November 2025 by decisioning Jack Della Maddalena on his 170lb debut; Garry is the un…
Makhachev is the sambo world champion and submission specialist — 13 of his 28 wins by sub, including four consecutive lightweight title defences finished by choke. Garry is the taller, rangier striker at 191cm to Makhachev's 178cm, a 13cm height gap that's enormous at welterweight, and he's gone t…
Makhachev wins if he closes distance, gets the clinch, and drags this to the mat. His brabo choke stopped Moicano in round one and Poirier in round five — he finds it everywhere. The height disadvantage is real, but Makhachev walked through Volkanovski twice and Della Maddalena once at ranges that didn't suit him. If he gets top position, Garry has to survive 25 minutes of suffocation.
Garry wins if he uses the 13cm height edge and keeps this at kicking range. He's 7-1 by knockout and went five hard rounds with Rakhmonov, so the cardio is there. Makhachev's knockout rate is 18 per cent to Garry's 41 — the Irishman has real power and Makhachev has been stopped once in his career, the sole loss on his ledger. If Garry can stuff takedowns and land the straight left over 25 minutes…
Deep-stats read on both fighters — how they win, how durable they are, and where the numbers actually diverge. Data pulled from Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry's career records — not opinion.
Makhachev finishes early. 5 of Makhachev's 5 stoppage wins on record have come inside three rounds — that's 100% of the KOs.
Makhachev has been stopped once in 29 fights — an outlier night against an opponent well outside the division. Durability holds up in this weight class.
Garry finishes early. 7 of Garry's 7 stoppage wins on record have come inside three rounds — that's 100% of the KOs.
Garry has never been stopped in 18 professional fights. Chin isn't the question — the question is whether Garry does enough to win rounds.
Makhachev comes in on a 16-fight win streak.
Garry is 13cm taller.
| Round | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Round 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Round 3 | 0 | 1 |
Career KO/TKO wins by finishing round, pulled from fight-record history. Use these when weighing a round-group prop.
A hand-tuned linear model built on career records, KO rate, durability, physical edges and layoff. Not a system pick — a second anchor to compare against the sportsbook's number below.
The model reads it 66%–34% for Garry. The heaviest signal: finishing rate on wins — 18% vs 41% of wins by KO. That's the anchor — cross-reference against the market implied probability on the board to see whether the book agrees.
Each factor contributes a signed weight to the score, then the combined score runs through a logistic curve capped at 2–98% to keep the model honest against genuinely uncertain fights. Positive values below favour Islam Makhachev, negative favour Ian Machado Garry.
Compared across major US sportsbooks. Prices refresh hourly.
| Sportsbook | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | Track odds |
| FanDuel | — | — | Track odds |
| BetMGM | — | — | Track odds |
Boxing News Staff · Updated 7 August 2026
The two-weight champion has won 16 straight, four of them lightweight title defences finished by submission. Garry is the bigger man and the better striker, but Makhachev's sambo pedigree and ability to find the choke from anywhere makes him the safer side when the market opens.
Method of victory, round groups, KO / decision splits and more — the full board of prop markets for this fight, each with our editorial angle where we've got one.
Full prop-market breakdown →MMA markets settle a little differently to major-league sports — a few basics that pay off before you place a bet:
Always compare the same market across multiple sportsbooks before placing a bet — prices routinely differ by a full point or more, especially on method and prop markets.