Everything you need to bet UFC 330: moneyline odds across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; our editorial best bets and value picks; and a full breakdown of the prop markets so you can find the highest-EV angle on the card.
Full card and undercard on the event page.
Islam Makhachev walks into Philadelphia at 28-1 with a UFC welterweight belt he moved up a weight class to win. Ian Garry sits at 17-1, unbeaten in the UFC, and hasn't yet been in with anyone who wrestles like the champion. UFC 330 answers three questions at once — is Garry ready, is Makhachev really the same fighter at 170, and does anyone at welterweight have a stylistic answer to the sambo game.
Garry is a slick outfighter who wins scorecards by being cleaner at range. Makhachev doesn't stand at range — he closes the distance, changes levels, and drowns opponents in top control. The two games barely intersect.
Makhachev wins by taking Garry down inside two minutes of the first round and never letting him get up. He's the strongest lightweight-to-welterweight of his generation, and Garry's takedown defence against sambo-level entries has never been tested at this level. Model outcome: a submission by round three.
Garry wins by stuffing takedowns for 25 minutes. He has to keep the fight vertical, use the jab to keep Makhachev at range, and land enough clean shots on the outside that he wins scorecards from three neutral judges. It's a viable path but it demands 25 uninterrupted minutes of the best defensive wrestling of his career.
Deep-stats read on both fighters — how they win, how durable they are, and where the numbers actually diverge. Data pulled from Islam Makhachev and Ian Garry's career records — not opinion.
Makhachev finishes early. 5 of Makhachev's 5 stoppage wins on record have come inside three rounds — that's 100% of the KOs.
Makhachev has been stopped once in 29 fights — an outlier night against an opponent well outside the division. Durability holds up in this weight class.
Garry finishes early. 7 of Garry's 7 stoppage wins on record have come inside three rounds — that's 100% of the KOs.
Garry has never been stopped in 18 professional fights. Chin isn't the question — the question is whether Garry does enough to win rounds.
Makhachev comes in on a 16-fight win streak.
Makhachev gives up 6 years.
| Round | Islam Makhachev | Ian Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Round 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Round 3 | 0 | 1 |
Career KO/TKO wins by finishing round, pulled from fight-record history. Use these when weighing a round-group prop.
A hand-tuned linear model built on career records, KO rate, durability, physical edges and layoff. Not a system pick — a second anchor to compare against the sportsbook's number below.
The model reads it 71%–29% for Garry. The heaviest signal: finishing rate on wins — 18% vs 41% of wins by KO. That's the anchor — cross-reference against the market implied probability on the board to see whether the book agrees.
Each factor contributes a signed weight to the score, then the combined score runs through a logistic curve capped at 2–98% to keep the model honest against genuinely uncertain fights. Positive values below favour Islam Makhachev, negative favour Ian Garry.
Compared across major US sportsbooks. Prices refresh hourly.
| Sportsbook | Islam Makhachev | Ian Garry | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | Track odds |
| FanDuel | — | — | Track odds |
| BetMGM | — | — | Track odds |
Boxing News Staff · Updated 7 August 2026
The champion is the champion until a genuine stylistic answer arrives, and Garry's outfighting game has always been the wrong solution to Makhachev's problem. When the market posts, expect a short price on the favourite that's still fair.
Method of victory, round groups, KO / decision splits and more — the full board of prop markets for this fight, each with our editorial angle where we've got one.
Full prop-market breakdown →MMA markets settle a little differently to major-league sports — a few basics that pay off before you place a bet:
Always compare the same market across multiple sportsbooks before placing a bet — prices routinely differ by a full point or more, especially on method and prop markets.