UFC Fight Betting Preview: Rematch Between Top 10 Heavyweights Will Highlight Apex Card

August 6, 2024

4 months

There is a simple formula for standing out in the UFC’s heavyweight division right now. Don’t be boring. If you can finish fights, there are real opportunities to climb the ladder quickly.

Sergey Spivak and Marcin Tybura are long-time ranked heavyweights who want to add a fresh layer of paint to their reputations. Spivak and Tybura are both well-rounded fighters. But MMAfighting latest news shows that Spivak and Tybura have been prone to going the distance.

When Spivak and Tybura squared off in 2020, neither man could come close to bringing the show to a close. Tybura took a wrestling-heavy approach, landing two of eight takedown attempts. He would finish with a 116-40 edge in total strikes.

But a lot of time has passed since then. Tybura is coming off a submission win over powerful striker Tai Tuivasa. Spivak had a difficult performance last time out.

Paired up with former interim heavyweight champion Cyril Gane, Spivak suffered a difficult second-round loss. Spivak is favored in this rematch, but this may be a good chance to back the underdog. Tybura won the first matchup and controlled the fight both in the striking and on the ground.

Back Tybura to win again.

Bets to consider: Over 2.5 rounds, Tybura +125

Can’t Count Out Action Jackson

Damon Jackson spent five years outside of the UFC, fighting his way through the LFA and PFL. Since Jackson returned in September 2023, the best MMA news sites show that he has been involved in memorable fights. While Jackson was knocked out brutally by Ilia Topuria and Dan Ige, he showed his toughness by bouncing back.

Entering a fight with Chepe Mariscal, Jackson wants to prove he can be a strong gatekeeper. During Jackson’s last fight with Alexander Hernandez, he went the distance and earned a split-decision victory. Mariscal is willing to try and finish the fight but has seen two of his three UFC fights go the distance.

In a wild debut against Trevor Peek, Mariscal surprised many by winning by decision. He has since improved his record to 3-0. This is a step up in Mariscal’s competition. There’s a chance Marsical picks up another victory, but at the current price, I like backing the underdog.

Bets to consider: Jackson +190, Under 2.5 rounds

Chelsea Seeks Opportunity to Build Back Reputation

Chelsea Chandler has won a fight since losing to Norma Dumont in July 2013. However, it’s hard to forget the image of Chandler fleeing with her back turned from Dumont to try and get away. Chandler, who is only 6-2 in her career, would like to rebuild her reputation against a fighter in a poor run of form.

Yana Santos is 14-8 in her UFC career but has lost her last three fights. Santos, who returned to the octagon in 2023 after two years off, took losses to ranked contender Karol Rosa and former bantamweight champion Holly Holm.

Neither loss on its face is egregious. But MMA latest updates show that Santos taking a step down in competition puts her almost in a must-win kind of spot.

Santos is the more polished fighter and should avoid being pulled into Chandler’s style. Santos is coming off a broken nose but should be fully healed for this bout.

Bets to consider: Santos -143, Santos by decision

Nascimento Ready for Action

Allan Nascimento hasn’t been able to get into the octagon much since joining the UFC in October 2021. He has only fought once yearly and has yet to enter the cage in 2024. Taking on Jafel Filho won’t be an easy fight to come back.

Filho has won back-to-back fights by submission. He will want to rely on Nascimento’s conditioning to see if he can hold up after he returns from injury. Nascimento has a higher ceiling and should be able to withstand the barrage.

Nascimento is just as capable on the ground as any other fighter in the UFC. He has finished 15 of his career victories by submission.

Bets to consider: Under 2.5 rounds, Nascimento by submission

Rosa Hopes to Protect Her Rankings

Karol Rosa started her UFC career by winning four consecutive fights. But heading into her fight with No. 11 Pannie Kinzaid, things have shifted dramatically in the other direction. Rosa, ranked No. 8 at bantamweight, has lost three of her previous five fights.

She is coming off a fight of the night loss to former bantamweight title challenger Irene Aldana. Pannie Kinzaid is in a similar stretch of rough results. She has lost three of her past four fights, including via decision to current bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington.

This will be a striking, heavy affair. Expect a close decision either way.

Bets to consider: Rosa -180, Rosa by decision

Diniz Wants to Help Produce Sparks

Jhonata Diniz made a successful debut in the UFC by knocking out Austen Lane in the second round. In Diniz’s first seven fights, he has produced seven knockouts. Continuing that streak against Karl Williams will require a difficult approach.

Williams is a wrestling specialist. While William’s wrestling background has helped him control his opponents in the UFC, it hasn’t allowed him to finish fights. Williams has won his past three fights, utilizing his strong takedown ability to control everyone he’s fought.

Diniz must stay off his back to win this fight. Williams has never been knocked out during his 11-fight MMA career. If Williams can find a way to close range and take the kickboxer down, this could be another sloppy fight.

Bets to consider: Williams by decision, Over 1.5 rounds

Here are quick picks for the other fights on the card: