UFC 323 – Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan: Preview & Betting Tips
The bantamweight division will serve up the rematch between reigning champion Merab Dvalishvili and former titleholder Petr Yan at UFC 323.
Dvalishvili (21-4) enters UFC 323 attempting his fourth successful title defence of the year, a volume of activity practically unheard of for a modern champion. The Georgian powerhouse has built his reign on relentless pressure and suffocating top control.
For Yan (19-5) the path back to the title has been defined by razor-close decisions and frustrating nights where he simply couldn’t pull away on the scorecards. Yet his skill set remains undeniable, particularly his boxing combinations and clinch work and trips.
Tale of the Tape
Merab Dvalishvili – Odds 1.22 (Sky Bet)
Record: 21-4
Age: 34
Height: 5ft6
Reach: 68”
Weight: Bantamweight
Stance: Orthodox
Petr Yan – Odds 4.00 (Sky Bet)
Record: 19-5
Age: 32
Height: 5ft7
Reach: 67”
Weight: Bantamweight
Stance: Switch
Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan: Analysis
Over the course of his title reign, Merab’s striking has sharpened considerably. Rather than simply crashing forward behind takedown attempts, Dvalishvili now uses his pressure with feints, kicks, and stance shifts, disrupting opponents before they can establish rhythm. It’s this evolution that makes him an even more complicated puzzle than the version Yan faced the first time.
Yan is perhaps the cleanest boxer in the division; he is balanced, patient, and devastatingly accurate. His defensive reads are exceptional, his ability to counter off angles is elite, and his instincts in the pocket are often a step ahead of his opponents. The question is whether he can assert those strengths early enough to stop Dvalishvili from stopping his momentum.
Yan’s historical tendency to start slowly has cost him rounds in the past, and against a fighter who builds volume and pressure like Merab, giving away five minutes can feel like giving away the entire fight.
Dvalishvili vs Yan: Prediction & Betting Tips
While Yan is likely to perform far better this time, Dvalishvili’s pace remains the defining factor in this matchup. Even when opponents defend well, the pressure forces them into defensive cycles that lose rounds by attrition. Over time, Merab’s commitment to movement, level changes, and constant engagement tends to wear down even the best technicians.
The rematch should be more competitive than the first, with Yan landing more effectively and creating moments of real danger. Yet the most probable outcome remains a Dvalishvili decision. The champion’s cardio, volume, and ability to win the “small battles” inside each round give him the clearest route to retaining the title.
Yan will not go quietly, and the fight should be action-packed. But I’m siding with Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision or technical decision at odds of 1.44 (Sly Bet).
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