UFC 323 – Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott: Preview & Betting Tips
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Henry Cejudo makes his final walk to the Octagon at UFC 323, closing the book on one of the most decorated combat sports careers in modern history. Standing across from him is Payton Talbott, a surging bantamweight prospect eager to stake his claim as the division’s next major breakout star.
Cejudo (16-5) retired once before, stepping away on top after stopping Dominick Cruz at UFC 249 in May 2020. When he returned three years later, expectations were sky-high, but he’s not been the same. The former two-division UFC champion and Olympic gold medalist has gone winless since returning.
Talbott (10-1) represents the new wave of bantamweight talent: long, fast, fluid, and offensively dynamic. He was widely viewed as one of the UFC’s top breakout candidates heading into the year, but his January step up at UFC 311 resulted in the first loss of his career.
Tale of the Tape
Henry Cejudo – Odds 2.88 (Sky Bet)
Record: 16-5
Age: 38
Height: 5ft4
Reach: 64”
Weight: Bantamweight
Stance: Orthodox
Payton Talbott – Odds 1.40 (Sky Bet)
Record: 10-1
Age: 27
Height: 5ft10
Reach: 70”
Weight: Bantamweight
Stance: Switch
Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott: Analysis
Though his prime years are behind him, Cejudo still holds technical advantages that cannot be dismissed. His wrestling remains elite by any standard, and if he can time Talbott’s entries or close distance effectively, he can turn this into a grappling-heavy fight. Cejudo excels at forcing opponents to work defensively, allowing him to rack up control time and stifle rhythm.
Talbott’s game is built around range and variety. He boasts a substantial size and reach advantage over Cejudo, and his ability to maintain distance behind long kicks and a pumping jab could be the key to neutralising the former champion.
Where Talbott truly shines is in the scramble moments and striking transitions, areas where post-2023 Cejudo has shown signs of slowing. Talbott pushes a consistent pace, punishes entries with knees and counters, and grows more dangerous as fights progress. And this is where the former champ could become unstuck.
Cejudo vs Talbott: Prediction & Betting Tips
Cejudo backers will point to his wrestling, IQ, and championship pedigree. Talbott supporters will hang their confidence on his youth, reach, momentum, and durability.
This should be competitive early, but Talbott’s volume and range tools, combined with Cejudo’s diminished ability to sustain wrestling pressure, likely tilt the later rounds in the prospect’s favour. Still, Cejudo’s farewell fight adds a wildcard dynamic. But, sentimentality aside, this is exactly the kind of test that shows us whether Talbott is ready for the next tier.
Take Payton Talbott moneyline at odds of 1.40 (Sky Bet). I never like seeing legends like Cejudo bow out of the sport with a loss, but unfortunately I’m fairly certain that’s what will happen here.
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