UFC 323 – Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van: Preview & Betting Tips
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The co-main event of UFC 323 presents reigning flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja against surging prospect Joshua Van.
Pantoja (30-5) has established himself as one of the most complete flyweights ever to hold the belt. His pressure, pace, jiu-jitsu skills, and willingness to engage in chaos have produced some of the division’s best fights in recent years.
Van (15-2) has quickly turned into one of the UFC’s fastest-rising flyweight prospects due to his speed, clean counterstriking, and the ability to fight with zero hesitation.
Tale of the Tape
Alexandre Pantoja – Odds 1.40 (Sky Bet)
Record: 30-5
Age: 35
Height: 5ft5
Reach: 67”
Weight: Flyweight
Stance: Orthodox
Joshua Van – Odds 2.88 (Sky Bet)
Record: 15-2
Age: 24
Height: 5ft5
Reach: 65”
Weight: Flyweight
Stance: Orthodox
Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van: Analysis
Pantoja thrives when he can force scrambles, drag opponents into grappling exchanges, and use relentless forward movement. Against Van, these strengths will be crucial.
While Van is a slick, fast, crafty boxer, he has not spent extended time fighting elite-level grapplers, and especially someone with Pantoja’s top-game suffocation and submission danger. If Pantoja pushes the pace, blends takedown attempts with dirty boxing in the clinch, and forces Van to defend instead of counter, he can drown the younger fighter.
Van has an uncanny feel for pocket exchanges, slipping shots and firing crisp combinations. His footwork and feinting game are high-level tools which allow him to read opponents quickly and punish openings with sharp, accurate punches. Unlike many young fighters, Van doesn’t overextend, he picks his spots, stays composed, and rarely wastes energy. He will need that discipline and composure more than ever against Pantoja.
Pantoja vs Van: Prediction & Betting Tips
Van’s best approach is to maintain separation, keep the fight at mid-range, and use quick snappy combinations whenever the champion rushes in. Pantoja can be hit, and Van has the precision to make those moments meaningful. If he can force Pantoja to reset, limit grappling exchanges, and win the speed battle, Van may actually steal rounds with cleaner, more efficient striking.
That being said, Pantoja has always found a way to win fights ever since he became the flyweight champion. The issues I have with picking Pantoja as a big favourite is the fact that he’s 35, and fighters 35 or older have poor records historically in UFC title fights.
On the flip side to that, while Van is on a five-fight win streak, he’s been taken down a lot across that streak. And if Pantoja gets you down, he latches onto you and eventually gets a submission.
This is a very tough one to call, but I’m willing to stake something on Joshua Van to win by KO/TKO at price boosted odds of 6.50 (Sky Bet).
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