UFC 311 – Betting Preview

The UFC’s first big event of the year is just a couple of days away and it’s jam packed with featured bouts that could headline most cards. There is not one but two title fights on the card, possible title eliminators and more. But first, let’s start with a look at the main event.

Can Makachev Put Away Tsarukyan?

Islam Makachev has torn through the competition in the UFC lightweight division. Only one man has gone the distance with him in his last seven bouts and that was former Featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski. However, that wasnt enough for Makhachev who then knocked out the Aussie in the first round next time around.

But one man he hasn’t stopped is Armenian, Arman Tsarukyan. Much like last weeks main event, this weeks feature bout is a rematch from 2019. On that night it was the Russian who claimed the spoils picking up a decision victory on his march for lightweight glory. And Islam shouldn’t feel two disappointed in not finishing Tsaruykan as this is something nobody has managed to do in the UFC to date. However, the Russian loves a challenge and the question is can he do it now?

Well given the fact that he’s finished a whose who list of opponents over the past couple of years, you wouldn’t bet against it. This list includes the likes of Dustin Poirier, Volkanovski, Charles Oliveria, Bobby Green and Dan Hooker. While Tsarukyan also recently beat Brazilian Charles Oliver in to setup the rematch, the Armenian did so via a judges decision.

There doesn’t appear to be many challenges left for Makachev at present, so the fact that emphatically stopping Tsarukyan and being the first man to do so is one, gives him clear vision for this fight. I see the Russian going all out fornthe stoppage here. While this could be a risky tactic, I can’t see anything but a win for the champion.

Betting Prediction – Makachev by Stoppage

First Defense for Georgian Powerhouse

Merab Dvalishvili’s first defense of his bantamweight title appears to be a tough start for the Georgian. So much so, that the Vegas oddsmakers have him as an underwhelming underdog. This surprised me given that he hasn’t lost for seven years, beating the likes of John Dodson, Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo and of course Sean O’Malley for the title itself.

However, he’s coming up against undefeated Russian wrestler Umar Nurmagomedov. Much like Merab for many years, not many have put their name into the ring to fight Nurmagamedov who has fought just three times in the past two years. The only notable win the Russian has in the UFC was last time out in a dominant points victory over the Sandman, Cory Sandhagen.

So, why is Nurmagomedov such a clear favorite? Well as mentioned, hes undefeated in 18 fights and he seemingly has no weaknesses to expose. Still, I think the odds on him picking up the title are very short against a man that hasn’t lost for seven years. While, I was tempted to take the long odds offered on the champion, I believe the safer play is to bet on the fight to go the distance. I think both men will go into the fight in with the mindset of not wanting to lose the fight, rather than wanting to win. Merab will want to hang onto his title and Umar his undefeated streak. As such, this could be a cagey, tactical affair.

Betting Prediction – Fight to go the Distance

Jamal & Jiri Looking to Bounce Back

Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka probably have more in common than they think. Firstly, they are both looking to bounce back from title showdown defeats. Both losses came at the expense of light heavyweight phenom Alex Pereira. Neither man could go the distance with the Brazilian both losing by stopages.

Another other similarity between the two is that they both have victories over UFC veteran Glover Teixeira. The final similarity is that neither men like to leave it up to the judges. In fact, the Czech fighter hasn’t seen the judges scorecard in his last 22 fights, which dates all the way back to 2014! Hill’s fights also have a good stoppage record, with only one of his past eight bouts going the distance. With that said, there can surely only be one outcome in this one.

Betting Prediction – Fight to End in Either Round 1 or 2

Beneil Battles Brazilian

Beneil Dariush was once thought of as the next big thing in the UFC lightweight division. However, back to back first round losses to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan emphatically put an end to his seven fight win streak and have derailed his ambitions. He looks to get back on track against a man who is trying to put a run together himself in Renato Moicano. The Brazilian has an excellent record of 20 win in 26 fights and he is currently on a four fight win streak.

However, whether he can hang with the elite in the division remains to be seen. That’s because every time he has stepped it up and faced the best the UFC has to offer, he’s fallen short. That includes losing to Aldo, Fiziev and Dos Anjos. I think the 35 year old could face a similar fate here against a desperate Iranian in Dariush. And the fact that the odds makers have Dariush as the underdog only adds to the appeal of the bet.

Betting Prediction: Dariush to beat Moicano

Other fights on the card:

Middleweight – Kevin Holland vs Reinier De Ridder

Bantamweight – Payton Talbott vs Raoni Barcelos

Heavyweight – Jailton Almeida vs Serghei Spivac

Light Heavyweight – Bogdan Guskov vs Billy Elekana

Lightweight – Grant Dawson vs Diego Ferreira

Middleweight – Zachary Reese vs Azamat Bekoev

Women’s Bantamweight – Karol Rosa vs Ailin Perez

Bantamweight – Rinya Nakamura vs Muin Gafurov

Bantamweight – Ricky Turcios vs Bernando Sopai

Flyweight – Tagir Ulanbekov vs Clayton Carpenter

By Dean McHugh.