Ngannou Surprised Everyone Once. Can He Do the Same to Joshua?
It’s hard to know what to think of Francis Ngannou as a boxer. During his first professional boxing match last October in Saudi Arabia, Ngannou went the distance with Tyson Fury. But Ngannou didn’t just survive the bout.
Ngannou landed several strong punches, making it appear he had been boxing for years. He stunned the world by hitting a shot that sent Fury to the canvas. While Ngannou lost a split decision, he earned the respect of the boxing committee. The big question surrounding the Fury fight is how seriously Fury, who is the lineal heavyweight boxing champion, actually trained for the match.
Did he underestimate Ngannou? Anthony Joshua had initially indicated he was more interested in chasing titles than pursuing a big-money crossover fight. However, Joshua’s last two losses were to Oleksandr Usyk, who is the WBA (Super), IBF, WBO, IBO, and The Ring heavyweight champion. Usyk is trying to get Fury in the ring to give boxing its first unified heavyweight champion since Lennox Lewis.
Suddenly, the Ngannou fight made sense. Online boxing news shows that someone made the money work to make it happen. Early odds have been released, and monitoring how the line moves will be interesting. The two men are slated to fight on March 8.
Joshua Installed as a Favorite
Joshua’s latest boxing news shows that the veteran English fighter is still expected to beat Ngannou. Oddsmakers have installed Joshua as a -455 favorite on the three-way moneyline. The three-way moneyline means there are three bets for bettors to choose from: Joshua to win, the match to end in a tie, or Ngannou to win.
If anyone bets on Joshua to win on the three-way moneyline and the bout is scored a draw, that bet would be graded as a loss. On a tie/no-bet moneyline, Joshua is a -480 favorite to win, while Ngannou is +320. Anyone who wanted to make a $100 profit on Joshua to win on the draw/no-bet moneyline would have to wager $480.
Anyone who backs Ngannou to win the fight would bring back a $320 profit on a $100 bet. While Ngannou’s first boxing match went the distance, bookmakers aren’t expecting this one will need all 10 rounds. The over/under has been set at 6.5 rounds. The over is +102, while the under is -136.
Parker Spoils the Party
Joshua previously dismissed fighting Ngannou as a “gimmick.” What Joshua was hoping for was a meeting with former WBC champion Deontay Wilder. Both Joshua and Wilder fought tune-up opponents last December at Kingdom Arena in Saudi Arabia.
Joshua held up his end of the deal, forcing Otto Wallin to retire after five rounds. But Wilder showed that age may be catching up with him. Wilder made a surprising decision loss to Joseph Parker. Parker, while a sturdy heavyweight, is a journeyman who didn’t have the drawing appeal of the American fighter. Parker may be interested in a fight, but he has other challengers, and Joshua may not be interested.
That left Joshua without a clear plan moving forward. It doesn’t make sense for the British star to fight down in the rankings. Fury and Usyk were supposed to fight earlier, but an injury to Fury saw the date get pushed back. It made sense for Joshua to seek another opponent.
Joshua hasn’t won a championship fight since he knocked out Kubrat Pulev in December 2020. He has a 27-3 record and has won 24 of those bouts by knockout.
Ngannou Decides to Stick with Boxing for Now
There is a real demand for a strong heavyweight champion in MMA. An injury to Jon Jones ties up the UFC’s heavyweight championship belt. Interim champion Tom Aspinall is trying to stay active, but until he unifies the belts or fights Jones, there will be a lot of clamoring for other matchups.
While the PFL has insisted that Ngannou will fight in MMA this year, there aren’t any solid plans. The PFL vs Bellator card will determine another heavyweight champion.
There also may be more considerable money in boxing for Ngannou. There has been a serious investment from the Middle East in a number of professional sports over the past few years. If Ngannou can prove he can hang with another championship-level boxer, there could be a few more superfights in his future.
There is also an inherent risk for Ngannou. Now that he surprised people by hanging with Fury, any top-level fighter boxer will take their training much more seriously. There won’t be any surprises this time around.
Can Ngannou Pull a Stunner?
Ngannou left the mixed martial arts world to compete in boxing when he was at the top of his game. Ngannou unified the UFC heavyweight championship with a five-round decision win over Ciryl Gane at UFC 270. While Ngannou has tremendous power in MMA, winning 12 of his 17 fights by knockout, there are still questions about whether he can do the same in the boxing ring.
Joshua is a decorated boxer who held championship bouts with several sanctioning bodies before losing a pair of fights to Usyk back-to-back. Joshua is hungry to get back on top of the boxing world. The last thing Joshua needs is a decision win over Ngannou. He must perform a dominant performance and finish the fight in the first few rounds to show that he means business.
Currently, there’s not too much value on betting Joshua to win the fight. Even betting on Joshua to win by decision would be at a price that is -186. This is a fight where it will be important to monitor the news to see how each fighter handles the weight cut and if both men stay healthy up to the day of the fight.
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By Dean McHugh.
