UFC 317 – Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues: Preview & Betting Tips

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The middleweight clash at UFC 317 between Jack Hermansson and Gregory Rodrigues is set to be the featured prelim fight on Saturday night, and it’s going to be an absolute war.

Jack Hermansson (24-8) enters this bout after a 16-month layoff, most recently defeating Joe Pyfer in February 2024, and “The Joker” will be hoping to remind people that he is still a serious force to be reckoned with in the 185-pounds division.

Gregory Rodrigues (16-6) got exposed last time out in his knockout loss against Jared Cannonier. The Brazilian has unbelievable power in both hands, but his cardio proved to be a huge issue in his most recent fight.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson – Odds 2.45 (Ladbrokes)

Record: 24-8

Age: 37

Height: 6ft1

Reach: 77”

Weight: Middleweight

Stance: Orthodox

Gregory Rodrigues – Odds 1.57 (Ladbrokes)

Record: 16-6

Age: 33

Height: 6ft3

Reach: 75”

Weight: Middleweight

Stance: Orthodox

Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues: Analysis

There are questions surrounding both men heading into this fight. The Norwegian fighter has not stepped foot in the octagon in 16 months, and he’s edging closer to 40. Meanwhile, “Robocop” just recently got knocked out by Jared Cannonier and his cardio was severely exposed in the five-round fight. Luckily for him, this one is only scheduled for three rounds. But, Hermansson’s style could play on the Brazilian’s weakness.

Hermansson is one of the better top-control grapplers in the division. And if he can get the fight to the ground, he could dominate most middleweights with his gruelling and smothering style. His striking has steadily improved, though he rarely threatens a finish on the feet, with his last KO/TKO win coming way back in 2018.

Rodrigues is a dynamic finisher with heavy hands and a solid grappling background, but he prefers to keep fights standing. He’s won four of his last five, with notable finishes over Brad Tavares and Christian Leroy Duncan. However, as mentioned previously, Cannonier exposed his stamina issues. That being said, he is the fresher, younger and more active fighter heading into this one.

Hermansson vs Rodrigues: Prediction & Betting Tips

Hermansson is very durable and fights smart, but we have to question what he does have left in the tank at 37 and coming off of a very long layoff. He was never the most explosive fighter in the division anyway, so if he is rusty and lost a step, his striking and wrestling entries could end up being lethargic and telegraphed.

Rodrigues would love nothing more than to keep this fight standing, and his grappling is definitely good enough to do this when he’s fresh. He has dynamite in both hands and he throws vicious knees and elbows whenever he’s up close and on the cage.

Rodrigues’ takedown defence is solid, but Hermansson is relentless and has good enough cardio himself to wear the Brazilian down. However, I am concerned about a 16-month layoff where he supposedly had to recover from a bunch of back injuries.

On that note, I’m siding with Gregory Rodrigues simply because I trust him more and I don’t think his poor cardio will play a part in this three-round contest. Gregory Rodrigues moneyline at odds of 1.57 (Ladbrokes) is the pick.

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