How Nikita Krylov's Next 12 Months Could Unfold After UFC 329

Nikita Krylov's 2025 began with a brutal setback. The Ukrainian heavyweight/" class="internal-link text-bone underline decoration-ash/30 hover:decoration-gold underline-offset-2">light heavyweight absorbed a broken jaw in a TKO loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 329, requiring hospitalization and what will likely be months of recovery. At 33, with a 31-10 record and two separate UFC runs on his résumé, Krylov now faces the most uncertain stretch of his career. His next twelve months will hinge on how quickly the jaw heals and whether the promotion still sees him as a viable gatekeeper at 205 pounds.

Bull Case: Return by September, Two Wins by Year-End
In the optimistic timeline, Krylov's jaw requires eight to twelve weeks of immobilization followed by gradual sparring clearance. He returns to training by July and accepts a fall booking against a fellow ranked fringe fighter—someone like Dominick Reyes, who is also rebuilding after consecutive losses, or Alonzo Menifield. A grinding decision win in September puts him back in the win column. The UFC books him again in December against a rising contender looking for a name, and Krylov uses his submission craft to pull off an upset. He closes 2025 ranked somewhere between twelve and fifteen, still employed and relevant.

Base Case: One Fight in Late 2025, .500 Result
More realistically, the jaw injury forces Krylov out until October or November. The UFC offers him a short-notice replacement slot against a durable mid-tier opponent—perhaps Vitor Petrino if the Brazilian stumbles, or a rematch with someone from Krylov's earlier UFC tenure. Krylov looks tentative in the pocket, wary of taking another clean shot to the jaw. The fight goes the distance and could swing either way. He either ekes out a split decision or drops a competitive loss, finishing the year at 1-1 in his last two and facing real questions about his future at this level.

Bear Case: Extended Layoff, Possible Release
Jaw fractures can linger, especially for fighters in their mid-thirties. If complications arise or Krylov's confidence erodes after taking such heavy damage from a middleweight-sized opponent, he could sit out all of 2025. The UFC has little patience for inactive veterans outside the top ten. With one fight left on his contract—speculation, but common for fighters at his tier—the promotion might simply let him walk when the deal expires. Krylov would then face a choice: sign with a regional European promotion, test the PFL waters, or retire from active competition.

The division landscape tilts against him. Light heavyweight is loaded with young grapplers and patient strikers who won't rush into Krylov's submission traps. Alex Pereira's reign has drawn eyeballs, but the path to contention is crowded with fighters like Magomed Ankalaev, Aleksandar Rakic, and Jan Blachowicz—all stylistically tough for a fighter who relies on opportunistic grappling. Krylov's best-case scenario involves two methodical wins against unranked opponents, proving his chin held up and his submission timing remains sharp. Anything less, and 2026 could begin outside the octagon.