Malignaggi Predicts Mbilli Upset

Paulie Malignaggi does not think Canelo Alvarez is going to beat Christian Mbilli, and he has a specific reason why.

"I don't think he's going to beat Mbilli, because I think Mbilli brings too much of a pace, and one thing Canelo hates is a high pace," Malignaggi

Canelo's losses have generally come against fighters who imposed a relentless tempo — Floyd Mayweather in 2013 controlled the pace entirely, and Terence Crawford's unanimous decision win last September was built partly on Crawford's ability to sustain output while Canelo struggled to solve the angles.

The Frenchman has been elevated from interim to full WBC champion at 168 pounds following Crawford's retirement in December, which saw 'Bud' vacate all four belts. Mbilli's most recent performance before this fight was a 10-round draw against Lester Martinez on the Canelo-Crawford undercard, a result that reflected his high-volume approach without producing a definitive statement.

Canelo arrives as the betting favorite despite losing his undisputed status to Crawford. At 63-3-2 with 39 knockouts, he is the more accomplished fighter by any reasonable measure. Canelo has also spoken candidly about the Crawford defeat, acknowledging he forgot the basics in that fight and framing the Mbilli bout as a return to what made him the sport's dominant figure for nearly a decade.

"God forbid he beats Mbilli, he'll trap that belt again. He won't give any of the good fighters a shot at it. You've just gotta move on, dude. You had your career — it was a good career, congratulations — now get the hell out of here. Look how the middleweight/" class="internal-link text-bone underline decoration-ash/30 hover:decoration-gold underline-offset-2">super-middleweight division has blossomed since this guy got beat by Crawford,” Malignaggi

The division's landscape has genuinely opened up since the undisputed picture fractured. Edgar Berlanga, David Benavidez's activity at cruiserweight keeping him adjacent to 168, and the emergence of names like Hamzah Sheeraz have created an active landscape that feels more competitive than it did when Canelo held all four belts and dictated the terms.