Is it Worth Backing Francis Ngannou’s Moneyline to Upset Anthony Joshua?

March 7, 2024

12 months

Francis Ngannou’s participation in boxing matches against top-level heavyweights still doesn’t seem like it should work. Not because Ngannou doesn’t have power. The man hits hard and can put anyone to sleep.

It’s just that many people have looked at Ngannou’s surprising success against lineal heavyweight champion Tyson Fury and deemed him to be a legitimate prospect. Yes, Ngannou scored a knockdown. It’s also true that he lost a narrow split decision.

But it still seems impossible to think Ngannou could beat former WBA, WBO, IBO, and IBF champion Anthony Joshua. The betting line has moved toward Ngannou since it opened. Currently, Joshua is sitting at a -375 favorite on the three-way moneyline to win the fight. What happens this week in Saudi Arabia will have an interesting ripple effect on the future of the heavyweight division in boxing.

Here’s a look at the boxing card for Ngannou’s clash with Joshua, which will take place on March 8 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This card has three title fights to keep people interested in the action throughout the night. The major question is, can Ngannou put together another surprising performance?

Not Such a Gimmick Now

When the idea of a fight with Ngannou was first floated past Joshua, he said he wasn’t interested in a gimmick fight. However, Joshua’s thinking may have been impacted by another surprise in the boxing world. Joshua and former champion Deontay Wilder fought different opponents on the same card last December.

Wilder ended up taking an upset loss to Joseph Parker. Anthony Joshua boxing news shows the original plan was for Wilder and Joshua to fight off in another big-money showdown. But with Wilder’s stock on the downslide, Joshua sought out other options.

Ngannou’s performance against Fury changed Joshua’s tune. Joshua has a major edge in experience for this fight. He has 30 professional boxing matches under his belt and has 24 knockout wins.

Ngannou fought professionally 20 times in the UFC, compiling a 17-3 record and winning the promotion’s heavyweight title before leaving due to a contract dispute. One thing that stood out in Ngannou’s fight against Fury was his ability to still utilize his power.

Ngannou surprised many observers by scoring a knockdown against the lineal champion.

There are Plenty of Decent Prices to Back Joshua

Online boxing news shows that anyone who wants to back Joshua to win by knockout can find the price at -136 or better. Joshua to win by decision is set at +295. Ngannou is +335 to win by KO, while Ngannou is +1600 to win by decision.

The over/under for total rounds is set at 6.5 rounds with a juice of -115. Bettors should always shop around for the best prices. Every sportsbook typically offers small differences in the wagers and props it offers on any event.

People wanting to bet on the main event may want to bet Joshua by knockout. While Ngannou was strong against Fury, there are questions about how seriously Fury trained for the fight. Joshua will be ready to go and will want to make a statement about deserving another shot against the winner of the Oleksandr Usyk-Fury fight.

Zhang Favored to Crack Parker

Parker upset the apple cart by beating Wilder back in December. Parker’s reward will be fighting WBO interim heavyweight champion Zhilei Zhang in the co-main event. Zhang will be eager to get his hands on Parker, a former WBO champion.

Zhang has won 21 of his 26 career matches by knockout. People expect this matchup to produce fireworks. The over/under for this 12-round bout has been set at 10.5. The over is priced at even money, while the under is at -130.

Zhang is -230 to win on the three-way moneyline, while Parker is +183. Anyone searching for a knockout prop will see that Zhang is -115 to win by KO and +420 to win by decision. Parker is +600 to win by KO and +335 to win by decision.

The big question for this fight will be whether Parker can slow down Zhang’s power. Parker had the perfect game plan to handle Wilder, who is renowned as a power puncher. It is unclear if Parker can measure up to Zhang.

This is a good fight to end inside the distance with a KO from Zhang.

Vargas Attempts to Defend His Title

Rey Vargas went the ambitious route in his last fight. Vargas fought O’Shaquie Foster for the WBC super featherweight title last February. While Vargas lost that fight via decision, he still had his WBC featherweight title to fall back on. He will attempt to defend that championship against Nick Ball.

Vargas is 36-1 in his career and has won 22 fights by knockout. Ball is an up-and-coming man who has displayed a lot of promise through the early part of his career. The 27-year-old British fighter is 19-0 in his career and has finished 11 of his fights by KO.

Ball is -200 to win the fight on the three-way moneyline, and Vargas is +163. Many people expect the fight to go the distance. The over/under was set at 10.5 rounds. The over is priced at -305, and the fight is -225 to go the distance.

Vargas is +260 to win by decision, while Ball is +145. Vargas is +800 to win by KO, while Ball is +235. Ball seems like an up-and-coming prospect who has a lot of people interested in what he can accomplish. This is a spot to back Ball to win by decision.

Here’s a look at the rest of the fights on the card that aren’t listed above: