Du Plessis vs Strickland 2 – Betting Preview

February 4, 2025
1 week

The UFC road show continues this week, with the next stop Sydney, Australia. We’re heading to the Qudos Bank Arena for the rematch between Du Plessis and Strickland. Its the second week in a row that the middleweight’s have main evented in the UFC, following last weekends trip to Saudi Arabia. So let’s break this one down and some of the other fights on the card to see if we can point you in the right direction to make some money.

What’s Changed Since Their Last Fight?

Well in all honesty, not a lot. The champion Du Plessis picked up a fourth round stoppage win against former champ Israel Adesanya. Although Strickland has also defeated ‘The Last Stylebender’, he couldn’t finish him. So this looks to be a solid form line to work off of and it’s probably one of the reasons why Du Plessis is a shorter priced favorite. However, given that last weekend Nassourdine Imavov finished Issy inside two rounds, there are some question marks over that form line.

Strickland too has picked up a win since they last met. But this was an expected points decision victory against Brazlian Paula Costa who has now lost four of his last five fights. So, we haven’t learned a great deal since these two last met. Let’s see if we can pick up anything from their last meeting which was a split decision win for the South African.

Breaking Down the Stats

Looking at the stats from their last fight, it’s easy to see why Strickland felt aggrieved by the decision. That’s because he landed more significant strikes in four of the five rounds, totalling almost 40 more throughout the entire fight. Will he try anything different here?

I believe Strickland is likely to try and mix his shots up a bit more in this one. In their first fight he landed 90% of his shots to the head. However, looking at his last fight with Costa, this number was reduced to 57% and he targeted the body more. Given the current champ is known for his cardio, working the body to try and slow him down could be a good option.

And what about Du Plessis, will he try anything different? It’s highly unlikely. The South African appears to have one way of working as his fight stats are pretty similar for each of his fights. And who can blame him given its been a recipe for success in the past.

Fight Prediction

I do believe the champ will retain his title here. However, I wouldn’t be taken him on at such short odds. The safe play here is for the fight to go all way to the final round. Four of both men’s last five fights have gone the distance and I see this one being no different.

Betting Suggestion – Over 4.5 Rounds

Is it the Final Straw for Zhang?

The co-main event on the card features another title fight, this time in the women’s strawweight division as champion Weili Zhang looks to defend against title challenger Tatiana Suarez. I can’t remember a time when Zhang has been an underdog in a UFC matchup, but that’s what she finds herself as here, albeit a very slight underdog, with some bookmakers making this a pick em bout.

And given Suarez’s impressive UFC record it’s easy to see why she’s the favorite here. She’s finished four of her last five including a firstborn submission victory over former flyweight champ Alexa Grasso. Suarez was also mightily impressive last time out against Jessica Andrade. However, that was almost 18 months ago and you have to be concerned with her lack of time in the octagon.

Her fitness and health problems have been well documented and its highlighted by the fact that she has only fought six times since 2017. So what of the champ? While she’s been a lot more active she did only fight once in 2023 and once in 2024. However, you have to question whether a lack of competition in the division has aided that.

Well, she certainly has a fight on her hands here and its intriguing to see how this plays out. I’m struggling to pick an outright winner, with both fighters coming into the match up with question marks over their fitness. Despite the fact that Zhang’s last two fights have gone the distance, I think this one could see a finish. Three of her previous four fights didn’t go past the second round and Suarez is known for her aggression to finish fights.

Betting Suggestion – Fight not to go the Distance

Is Jusfin in for a Tafa Night?

You could be forgiven for thinking the odds on Justin Tafa to win this one look very generous given that he’s the home fighter, his extensive UFC experience and the fact that his opponent hasn’t had a UFC fight to date. However, Brazlian Tallison Teixeira looks a force to be reckoned with. He’s undefeated in seven fights and he’s won six of those seven, inside the very first round.

He punched his ticket to the UFC after an impressive display on Dana White’s Contender Series where he finished his oppenent inside two minutes. He was due to make his UFC debut in December against Lukasz Brzeski but the fight was cancelled. The 25-year-old looks a huge talent, but you never know how fighters will respond to the lights of a UFC pay per view events, which puts me off tipping him to win here. The smart play is to opt for a quick finish here. Teixeira is clearly a knockout artist and he will want to lay down a marker on his UFC debut. Tafa will want to put on a show for the home crowd and let’s not forget, three of his last four fights have finished inside the first round too.

Betting Suggestion – Under 1.5 Rounds

Other Fights on the Card

Light Heavyweight Division – Jimmy Crute vs Rodolfo Bellato

Welterweight Division – Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado

Featherweight Division – Jack Jenkins vs Gabriel Santos

Lightweight Division – Tom Nolan vs Viacheslav Borshchev

Women’s Flyweight Division – Cong Wang vs Bruna Brasil

Bantamweight Division – Colby Thicknesse vs Aleksandre Topuria

Lightweight Division – Zhu Rong vs Kody Steele

Welterweight Division – Jonathan Micallef vs Kevin Jousset

Lightweight Division – Quillan Salkilld vs Anshul Jubli

Flyweight Division – Hyun Sung Park vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Written By Dean McHugh

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