Canelo v Berlanga: Three Reasons Why The Challenger Could Shock The World

September 13, 2024
5 months
Canelo Alvarez and Edgar Berlanga come face to face ahead of their bout

On Saturday night at the T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez will make the latest defense of his super-middleweight world titles against Edgar Berlanga.

Canelo (61-2-2 39 KO) puts his WBC, WBA, and WBO belts on the line against leading contender Berlanga (22-0-0 17 KO) in a fight the Mexican is widely expected to win; Alvarez is viewed as simply too good and too experienced to be troubled by an opponent who is yet to be tested at this level.

But this is big-time boxing where shocks can happen, and Berlanga appears determined to add his name to the sport’s history books by toppling one of its great champions.

So, how can the Puerto Rican emerge victorious on Saturday night? It’s a massive challenge, but there are routes to victory, even if they rely on Berlanga being perfect and Canelo having an off night – with some good fortune thrown into the mix. It all sounds improbable, but not impossible.

Berlanga Needs To Have Perfected Several Plans

Berlanga caught the boxing world’s attention early in his career by knocking out his first 16 opponents in the first round. Granted, the streak lacked any credible names and it was followed by four successive points wins against decent – but not top-level – fighters like Steve Rolls and Jason Quigley, but it did show Berlanga can bang and knows how to finish.

The Puerto Rican’s Plan A will likely focus on his strengths of punching in volume and looking to land power shots from a comfortable range. He does hold a height and reach advantage over Canelo.

To execute this strategy, Berlanga will need to dictate the tempo of the fight and keep Canelo at distance, both of which are extremely unlikely. The Mexican is one of the best fighters ever at cutting off the ring and stalking his opponents so to think Berlanga can be the first opponent to nullify Canelo’s approach is wishful.

It means Berlanga needs to not only have Plans B, C, and D but to have mastered all of them for when different strategies are needed, potentially in the middle of a round. He needs to be ready to counter, stick and move, use his jab, know when to be patient and when to show urgency – and know at any given moment when to change course.

It’s a monumental task that requires complete focus and calm, while also displaying a well-rounded defense and composure for when he inevitably gets hit.

Berlanga has been accused of being a one-dimensional fighter, but if he has been able to add new skills and weapons to his arsenal in this training camp that Canelo has perhaps not prepared for, he can use any element of surprise to his advantage.

Berlanga Must Rely On Youth And Self-Belief

Aside from his height and reach, the only other tangible advantage Berlanga holds over Canelo is age. The 27-year-old is seven years younger than Alvarez, who having turned pro at 15, has been boxing since the Puerto Rican was just eight and has contested three times as many bouts.

That should, in theory, give Berlanga the edge in terms of youthful energy and freshness, although Canelo has managed to preserve his longevity by adopting a comfortable pattern of fighting twice a year – once in May and again in September.

Berlanga has also publicly displayed his confidence and self-belief, insisting he holds no fear of Canelo – unlike many of his opponents – and is convinced that is his key to victory.

“He knows he didn’t see no fear. He knows he saw himself,” Berlanga said after one of their early press conferences. “You know how Tony Montana says in the movie ‘Scarface,’ the eyes never lie? You never saw me looking around. I looked straight, right into his soul. I saw everything in his body. When I went to L.A. and he had 100 guys with him, and it was only five of us, I kept that same energy in his face. I don’t fear any man at all.”

Berlanga will need every ounce of confidence and self-belief if he is to have any hope of defeating Canelo. If he can maintain his belief, particularly in the pressure moments, it will allow him to remain focused on his strategy instead of engaging in a frantic firefight – which he would likely lose.

Hope Canelo Shows Signs Of Decline

As mentioned, Canelo has been fighting for a long time. A 65-fight career spanning 19 years will take its toll on any fighter, even an all-time great like Alvarez. Having dominated the super-middleweight division since his arrival in December 2020, becoming the undisputed champion three fights and 12 months later, Canelo has not been at his dynamic best in recent years.

Following a deserved loss to the brilliant Dimitrii Bivol at light-heavyweight in May 2022, Canelo has beaten four opponents, but all went the distance and none could be considered elite opposition.

He completed his trilogy with future Hall of Famer Gennady Golovkin, but GGG was well past his best and the 40-year-old still only lost by one round on two of the scorecards. Alvarez then dominated the aging John Ryder but couldn’t get the stoppage, and again was taken the distance by Jermell Charlo who climbed two divisions for the fight.

Most recently, Canelo claimed a unanimous points win over Jaime Munguia, and while he dropped the challenger in the fourth round, he never looked like securing the knockout.

Canelo is still the overwhelming favorite to retain his titles on Saturday, but if there has been another level of decline, Berlanga will hope to take advantage and claim a shock victory.

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